Please remember that Weekend Comments are posted at the website every other weekend. I do make them each weekend and email them out.
Feb. 28th Tuesday
First Notice Day (March) contracts
Last Trading Day Feb. Cattle
Cattle On Feed
Feed 96% Est. 96.5%
Placed 96% 97.1%
Mkt 104 % 103.9 %
Bullish numbers but the trade was expecting down 4% from Last Yr.
Weights are down 16 lbs from this time Last Yr.
USDA Outlook Forum had total Red meat and Poultry production at 106.9 bln lbs vs.107.5 bln. First decline since 2014.
Perfect storm, Less animals, China halts Brazilian beef imports (BSE case) Weights down
Now the market needs to react for Higher prices. Market action
But also less Corn demand
Still long April 161 Cattle put and short 167 call at even money. Out 60 pts. right now and holding. Will look if April cattle closes over 168 we might get out of the way. Will inform ya all.
CZ / SX ratio 2.384
Ins. est
Corn 593.25 and Beans 1377.75
Friday we made new low’s for the month of Feb.
Jan lows are CH 648.25 and Ck 648.25
For beans Feb low is SH 1505.75 and SK 1500.25 and SN 1493 and SX 1351.75
USDA Outlook Forum
Corn acreage 91 and yield 181.50
Ending stocks 1.887
Stock to use ratio 13% and that would be the Highest since 2019/2020
Long way to go planting and growing season. Plus Brazil is planting corn later than last yr.
My CZ short term range res: 581 and 585-586
sup: 567 and 562.50
Fund liquidation
Will be canceling orders to buy CZ 560 put and selling CZ 660 call at even money.
Was near 2 cents but didn’t pull the trigger. Keep an eye on that I will too.
I still say be proactive (read the last 2 weekend comments) archives at the website will have one of them. Last week mention “HOPE” marketing…not good management. Again don’t have a broker or maybe need some other options I would be glad to help and maybe be that broker for you.
On 2-11 comments I had CZ res; 598-604 and support 585 and 577
Range last week 597.50 H and L 574.25 I can give you some guidance if you reach out.
Follow me on Twitter
Be Safe
Scott Capinegro
DBA
800-942-1513
Branch Office HighGround Trading
Clear trades thru Wedbush
Recent Comments