Monday 24th Cold storage report
Friday 28th First Notice day for March contacts
March 2nd China tariffs adjusted and or waived on 700 US products
US lifts ban on Brazil Beef imports after 2 yrs.
Cattle on Feed report Friday 21st
On feed 102 est. 102.4
Place 99 102
Mrkt 101 101
Cattle contracts still have gaps lower and higher to address
Ag Forum numbers
Corn 94 mil. acres vs. 89.7 (+5%)
yield 178.5 production 2.637 vs. 1.892 (2019)
This would be a record production number
Beans 85 mil. acres vs. 76.1 (+12%)
yield 50.5 ending stocks 320 vs. 425 (2019)
USDA using a big export number
These are ALL projections and as we know planting weather can change acreage. BUT remember Dec Corn went off the board under $4 in yrs. 2014 15 16 17 18 and 19. Why not 2020? IMHO corn bull spreads should continue to work for now.
Friday March options went off the board. Did that contribute to the grain weekness?
It is still Feb. and we are working on insurance numbers. So new lows are and still could be in play. Feb. low March rally is the seasonal. Pres. election yr. play is Jan low holds CH 375.25 even in the month of Feb. But the “virus” could have us put in a new low. Time will tell. Still seasonal March rally.
As of Friday’s close
Ins. avg Corn 391.25 vs. last yr.$4
Beans 919.75 vs. last yr. 9.54
CZ/ SX ratio is 2.376
Start of the yr was 2.431 and in 2019 start of the yr was 2.366
IMHO I would roll if you are using a basis contract for corn
Also lets NOT forget…DEMAND.. on paper with trading partners demand should be larger than last yr. US dollar / Brazil Real need that spread to break from its year Highs. Follow me on twitter for some daily numbers and thoughts
Questions I’m a free call away.